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Ultimate DOOM? Reality Report: Jay Hanson (5 posts)

1. chrisc
   Member

   In the 1990s Jay Hanson's web site predicted with uncanny accuracy key trends of the early 21st century with respect to energy, the environment and geopolitics. What did he learn that most of us still don't know, and what does he foresee ahead of us? This program reviews the history and motivation behind Jay's work. With his background in computer programming, he is able to keenly parse a great deal of information into a logical framework, combining analyses of history, politics, biology, energy and economics into a generally horrific view of the future. Jay explains how he believes that until we face the causes of the crises upon us we will not overcome them. However, understanding is seriously hindered by self-deception and political expediency. As a contrast to the horrors of war and coercion he fears are upon us, he uses his knowledge of ecology and energy to envision a sustainable society--the difficulty he has is seeing a path to get there.

   http://www.dieoff.org/
   http://www.warsocialism.com/

   Reality Report: Jay Hanson (audio) (length 0:50:56): http://media.globalpublicmedia.com/RM/2008/11/rr-j...

   http://globalpublicmedia.org/reality_report_jay_ha...

   High on doom, low on how we make the transition to a post-capitalism society happen fast -- he foresees nuclear war for the planets resources in 10-14 years time.

   See also the discussion that started here before the show was broadcast:

   Jay Hanson and Warsocialism.com
   http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4719

   Posted 16 years ago #
2. chrisc
   Member

   This is a decent summary of what Jay Hanson says in the radio interview by Dr. No at The Oil Drum:

   Attempt at a brief summary of Hanson's view:

   Hanson expects that the coming decades will see an up to 90% reduction in the number of humans on the planet due to declining world energy production and the war(s) that may be triggered by energy/resource scarcity.

   He believes that the only way to avoid massive catastrophe would be large-scale investment in alternative (to hydrocarbon) sources of energy begun at least a decade or two before the peak. The build-out of such alternatives would consume a moderately significant percentage of world hydrocarbon production (used in mining, transporting, and processing the materials needed to build solar energy facilities, wind turbines, nuclear power plants, necessary infrastructure, etc.), and there would be a tough period during the transition.

   However, he believes we are already at or very near the peak (at least in net energy terms *) of world hydrocarbon production, and in order to rapidly build out alternatives now that we have waited for the market to signal the problem via high hydrocarbon prices (instead of investing to solve the problem well ahead of time), up to 70% of the (soon to be rapidly declining) world hydrocarbon production will need to be spent in order to successfully implement the alternatives on a large enough scale. This would not leave much energy for the production of food, consumer goods, or personal transportation during the transition period:

   http://www.dieoff.org/b.gif
   http://www.dieoff.org/l2.html

   He thinks the conflict over the remaining sources of hydrocarbons (vital to making this transition away from hydrocarbons) is likely to trigger a global nuclear war within around 10-15 years. He hopes he is wrong, but is afraid he is not. After all, we are animals, and might end up acting less in the spirit of co-operation, and more based on fear, aggression, and a desire to secure resources for ourselves rather than agreeing to mutually sacrifice for the benefit of the future of mankind.

   One might see Hanson as a bit of a pessimist. It would certainly not be too pleasant if it turned out that he was a realist.

   • Energy available for other work after subtracting the rapidly rising percentage of energy produced (well, mainly extracted) that is used (reinvested) in the energy production process itself. The rate of return on each unit of energy reinvested in future hydrocarbon production keeps declining as many small and hard to access deposits are needed to compensate for each large deposit that is depleted.

   http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4719#comment-429872

   Posted 16 years ago #
3. chrisc
   Member

   Some positive things that I forgot to mention -- he advocates a sloth society -- he suggests that 95% of people could give up working and just stay at home looking after the kids while the 5% produce enough food for everybody and that this would save a lot of energy and resources.

   I think the key message is that we have to stare making the transition to a post-capitalist and post-carbon society as fast as we can if we want to avoid the Mad Max senario.

   Posted 16 years ago #
4. truthmod
   Administrator

   I've been hearing many talking heads during the election coverage talking about all the crises. Funny, they all seem to mention:

   Financial

   Energy

   Job

   Credit

   But no one has used the term

   ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS

   I guess that's just too radical for mainstream capitalist politics. Sure does make it hard to take any of this seriously.

   Of course, it has to be a human-centered, societal crisis to get any attention because we only see what's in our bubble.

   Posted 16 years ago #
5. truthmod
   Administrator

   Something tells me that Obama is not going to mention "mass exinction" or "the biodiversity crisis" in any speech anytime soon. I would be quite happy to be wrong though.

   High Environmental Hopes Riding on Obama's Green Promises

   http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/nov2008/2008-11-05...

   The Center for Biological Diversity looks forward to working with the Obama administration and the new Congress to take swift action to stem the extinction crisis, reverse the current course toward runaway global warming, and promote the cultural diversity that is the essential foundation of a fulfilling life for all peoples, plants, and animals," said Executive Director Kierán Suckling.

   "Mass extinction, global warming, and erosion of diversity are the greatest threats humanity has ever faced," he said. "The time left to address them is growing short. In our 20 years advocating for wildlife, wilderness, and untamed culture, we've never before witnessed a presidential election with so much promise to actually solve these issues."

   Posted 16 years ago #

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