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IEA Report leaked: 9.1% annual drop in oil production... (8 posts)

1. truthmod
   Administrator

   http://www.postcarbon.org/nine_percent

   The Financial Times has leaked the results of the International Energy Agency's long-awaited study of the depletion profiles of the world's 400 largest oilfields, indicating that, "Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent."

   This is a stunning figure.

   Considering regular crude oil only, this means that 6.825 million barrels a day of new production capacity must come on line each year just to keep up with the aggregate natural decline rate in existing oilfields. That's a new Saudi Arabia every 18 months.

   Posted 16 years ago #
2. chrisc
   Member

   Richard Heinberg also says:

   Evidently peeved about being scooped on its planned November 12 press conference roll-out of the study, the IEA has disavowed the Financial Times story. But if nine percent is even close to being the final figure, then it's absolutely clear: July 2008 was the all-time peak in world oil production. Don't expect anyone at the IEA to officially admit that fact until 2025 or so. But among those who pay attention to the evidence and the terms of the debate, further ink need not be spilled in speculation.

   Peak oil is history.

   Meanwhile the liberal media is trying to keep up:

   Peak oil is just five years away, and we must start to plan now to avert a truly ruinous crisis

   If we accelerate the green industrial revolution, we believe we can soften the blow of the oil crunch, set up the recovery and get out of oil dependence surprisingly quickly. We hope industry and government can plan for an industrial green new deal, starting now.

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/2...

   Posted 16 years ago #
3. mark
   Member

   At the "ASPO" peak oil conference in Sacramento in September, it was said that those expecting depletion rates between 2 to 5 percent would be considered peak oil optimists and 5 to 8 percent would be considered peak oil pessimists. Nine percent depletion from existing fields is an astounding admission that should be front page news everywhere, although it will probably be ignored except by the technical press and the media that caters to the wealthiest sector of society. At ASPO, an energy writer for the Wall Street Journal was a speaker at a media workshop. None of the liberal, left alternative media such as Democracy Now!, The Nation and Mother Jones chose to attend, perhaps peak oil will be an issue worthy of widespread media attention when the gasoline rationing starts.

   The establishment media also doesn't want to discuss the Hirsch report, which said (in 2005) it would take 20 years to prepare for Peak Oil - in other words, we blew it when Carter's anemic efforts were blocked.

   It's "peaked oil," now.

   Posted 16 years ago #
4. truthmod
   Administrator

   Peak Oil: Are Oil Prices Destined to Rise Again?
   http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/10/...

   Crude oil futures continued down on Friday, spooked by the dim outlook for the U.S. economy. That’s precisely what makes it likely oil prices will rebound next year.

   Big oil companies are already finding it harder to maintain, let alone increase, production. Chevron doubled its third-quarter net profit, but said production fell 5.7% in the quarter, after ExxonMobil reported an 8% production drop yesterday.

   Falling oil prices are only going to accelerate that trend, analysts warn, at a time when OPEC is accelerating output cuts and production declines at oil fields around the world is apparently increasing.

   Supply Worries Persist in Oil Market, Just Not Now
   http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122566263547491387...

   While oil may be at its cheapest in months, prices deep in the future reveal a market with serious concerns about long-term supply.

   As evidence, analysts point to charts of crude oil futures. Oil for delivery years from now costs more than oil for imminent sale, and the difference has widened. While front-month crude is down 53% from its July peak, oil contracts for later delivery dates have fallen far less.

   For example, as recently as last summer, December 2008 and December 2013 crude-oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange cost the same. Now, the 2008 contract is $21.50 a barrel below 2013, an unprecedented discount.

   Posted 16 years ago #
5. chrisc
   Member

   Could it be the IEA wrote that fields in decline, decline at 9.1-6.4%? So weren't referring to all production, just the fraction already in decline?

   http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4724#comment-429...

   Thinking about this more, it might be a classic case of scaring people stupid with an exaggerated claim so that when the real figures come out they don't seem so bad.

   This is an old trick.

   Posted 16 years ago #
6. truthmod
   Administrator

   http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/nov/07/oil...

   Energy agency sees oil price rising to $200 a barrel

   The era of cheap oil is over, the International Energy Agency warned yesterday as it predicted crude values would soon rebound to above $100 a barrel and double again by 2030 as fields in the North Sea and elsewhere in the world declined faster than expected.

   More than $26tn (£16tn) of new investment would be needed over the next 20 years to ensure the world had enough energy, according to the IEA, which was founded during the oil crisis of 1973-74 and acts as energy policy adviser to 28 member countries including Britain.

   "While market imbalances could temporarily cause prices to fall back, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the era of cheap oil is over," the organisation stated.

   The developed world's energy watchdog has doubled its long-term price expectation from last year's $108 a barrel for 2030. It assumes oil prices will rebound from today's $60-$70 a barrel to trade, in real terms adjusted by inflation, at an average of more than $100 from 2008 to 2015.

   The summary, published yesterday, to the IEA's annual World Energy Outlook says the rise in oil prices is largely because companies will struggle to pump enough new oil to offset the production declines of the world's older fields. But the organisation refuses to accept that what is known as "peak oil" has yet been reached.

   Posted 16 years ago #
7. chrisc
   Member

   So, it's now out, links to articles on it from the Energy Bulletin:

   http://www.energybulletin.net/node/47192

   The first part of The Oil Drum's analysis:

   The 2008 IEA WEO - The Oil Drum Initial Review (Part 1 of a Series)
   http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4735

   The organisation's chief economist is Dr Fatih Birol:

   FATIH BIROL: The current trend we are in is an unsustainable one. With the current policies we are perfectly in line with the trajectory which would lead us up to six degrees Celsius increase in the Earth's temperature.

   If we do not change our policies substantially and as soon as possible, I think it will be too late to make major changes in our greenhouse gas emissions.

   http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2008/s2418216.htm

   Posted 16 years ago #
8. truthmod
   Administrator

   Thinking about this more, it might be a classic case of scaring people stupid with an exaggerated claim so that when the real figures come out they don't seem so bad.

   Yes, when I first heard 9.1%, I thought it must be in regards to something other than annual decline in production.

   Lots of good stuff on the Oil Drum review. It looks like IEA is finally admitting the reality of PO...

   The IEA production-weighted average decline rate worldwide is projected to rise from 6.7% in 2007 to 8.6% in 2030 as production shifts to smaller oilfields, which tend to decline more quickly.

   ---

   Leaving the detail for future discussion, the key number is a postulated 6.7% global average decline rate that incorporates an extrapolation to thousands of smaller fields that have not been studied directly. This figure is significantly higher than the 4.5% global average decline rate postulated by CERA last year (Peter Jackson, personal communication with Euan).

   Posted 16 years ago #

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