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The point where Peak Oil surpasses Global Warming in the news? (15 posts)

  1. chrisc
    Member

    Comment on The Oil Drum:

    Robert Hirsche was on CNBC this morning talking about Peak Oil. I think this is very significant. Hirsche really spells it out, pulling no punches. The only problem was it came on so early, 5:51AM Eastern Time. But it will probably be posted on YouTube soon and perhaps a separate thread on TOD. Yes, I think this interview is that big. This is the first time, to my knowledge, that peak oil has been discussed in such detail on any of the financial networks. I think this the threshold, the point where Peak Oil surpasses Global Warming in the news.

    http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4017#comment-346548

    Posted 16 years ago #
  2. chrisc
    Member

    So are the peak oilists right?

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aba39212-2607-11dd-b510-...

    Posted 16 years ago #
  3. truthmod
    Administrator

    Lots of coverage right now. Story in tomorrow's SF Chronicle.

    It's kind of sad looking at this coverage and realizing that it basically took until the Peak had arrived for the issue to get any coverage. Most stories start out like the one below, explaining the basics. And it's pretty darn simple when it comes down to it. It's like, "Hmmm, couldn't we have figured this out (faced it) just a little bit earlier. But we're all so far removed from the logistics of our civilization (and survival) of course. It's always taking someone else's word for it and assuming someone else will figure it out.

    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2...

    Even as the cost of crude oil has soared in recent years, the amount pumped from the ground hasn't.

    Worldwide oil production has barely budged, despite record prices. Since the start of 2004, oil's price has gone from $33 per barrel to $132. Production, meanwhile, has risen just 1.8 percent, to 84.6 million barrels per day.

    That's not enough to keep pace with the world's growing thirst for oil, which has increased 3.7 percent during the same time. And the imbalance between supply and demand keeps pushing prices higher. It's one of the main reasons gasoline now costs more than $4 per gallon.

    Posted 16 years ago #
  4. chrisc
    Member

    Yesterdays Washington Post:

    Wake Up, America. We're Driving Toward Disaster.
    By James Howard Kunstler

    the truth is that no combination of solar, wind and nuclear power, ethanol, biodiesel, tar sands and used French-fry oil will allow us to power Wal-Mart, Disney World and the interstate highway system -- or even a fraction of these things -- in the future. We have to make other arrangements.

    So what are intelligent responses to our predicament? First, we'll have to dramatically reorganize the everyday activities of American life. We'll have to grow our food closer to home, in a manner that will require more human attention. In fact, agriculture needs to return to the center of economic life. We'll have to restore local economic networks -- the very networks that the big-box stores systematically destroyed -- made of fine-grained layers of wholesalers, middlemen and retailers.

    We'll also have to occupy the landscape differently, in traditional towns, villages and small cities. Our giant metroplexes are not going to make it, and the successful places will be ones that encourage local farming.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/artic...

    Posted 16 years ago #
  5. truthmod
    Administrator

    Reuters:

    http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSL...

    The price of crude oil has hit record levels above $135 a barrel, pushing industry analysts to take more seriously peak oil, or the idea that global production is near an apex after which it will decline sharply.

    The following are some facts about the concept, its adherents and its detractors.

    • The theory of peak oil was first suggested by geoscientist Marion King Hubbert, who in 1956 predicted U.S. oil production would peak between 1965 and 1970.

    Figures from the U.S. government Energy Information Administration show crude oil production peaked in the United States in 1970.

    The Hubbert peak curve is a bell-shaped model of production for a particular country, region or the world, given an assumed total recoverable volume.

    The theory has long been considered marginal, and premature declarations and inaccurate predictions have weakened its credibility.

    So, figures show that Hubbert's prediction was correct about domestic oil, but of course the "theory" has long been considered marginal. Hmmm.

    Posted 16 years ago #
  6. truthmod
    Administrator

    Thanks, IBD, I feel so much better now. It's a great time to invest in the suicide economy.

    Peak Oil: An Idea Whose Time Is Up
    http://www.investors.com/editorial/editorialconten...

    Analysts have found that investors spooked by the peak oil theory — the belief that crude production has topped out and is in decline — are partly behind the soaring oil prices. Someone should set them straight.

    The peak oil theory was popularized by Shell Oil geophysicist M. King Hubbert. He predicted in a 1956 paper that U.S. oil production would peak by the early 1970s and then decline sharply. The peak oilers — many of whom quietly want the world to run out of oil — say he was right. But they're missing some key points.

    Yes, domestic output has peaked. But it peaked at a level 13% above what Hubbert predicted. And the peak wasn't followed by a falling-off-the-table decline. Output rose after a temporary slide.

    U.S. production is trending down again, but it's not because there's no oil. It's due to shortsighted policies that prevent the industry from drilling for the almost 100 billion barrels of crude known to be under Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and beneath the oceans just off of America's coasts. It's because politics and political correctness block the development of Big Sky state oil shale fields, where as much as 2 trillion barrels of crude, by some estimates, sit idle.

    Posted 16 years ago #
  7. chrisc
    Member

    Analysts have found that investors spooked by the peak oil theory — the belief that crude production has topped out and is in decline — are partly behind the soaring oil prices.

    Haha, this is what I have been telling people, I'm sure this is the case, F. William Engdahl, has it partially right [1] but the info that is being used for this wave gambling is from sites like The Oil Drum and the cost is starvation for millions while the rich get richer... this system is so sick.

    [1] http://globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&...

    Posted 16 years ago #
  8. chrisc
    Member

    Found via The Oil Drum:

    Europe: Oil's Brave New World

    William Pentland 06.13.08, 6:00 AM ET

    If you want to see the future of oil, look at Europe.

    Since 1999, Europe has increased oil imports more than 20%--just slightly less than the amount consumed by Germany in 2007--to compensate for declining domestic production. In other words, Europe is running out of oil and scrambling to secure new supplies to fill the losses.

    And those losses are coming more quickly than predicted, primarily in the once-prodigious oil fields of the North Sea. After peaking in 2001, production in the North Sea, Europe's largest reserve of oil and gas, plunged. In 2006, after six years of consecutive declines, the North Sea produced nearly 2 million barrels of oil per day less than it had six years earlier, roughly equivalent to the amount France consumes annually.

    ...

    The cost and time needed to develop new oil supplies will vastly exceed what many once imagined. Similarly, the rate of depletion in key sources of current oil supply is accelerating more rapidly than anticipated.

    Right now, Europe faces the most risk. Large oil and natural gas were first discovered in the North Sea during the oil and gas exploration boom that followed the first oil shock in the early '70s. When oil and gas from the finds started flowing into commercial markets around the world during the '80s, it rapidly became "one of the world's key non-OPEC producing regions," according to the Energy Information Administration.

    And now that it's slowing Europe has no significant new reserves to tap. In 2001, Europe's oil production rose to 7.2 barrels per day and has fallen every year since. In 2006, Britain became a net importer of oil for the first time in decades. Yet Europe's energy needs are projected to rise by 2030. In the absence of new discoveries or breakthroughs in alternative energy, the continent will need to import more and more oil to meet the demand, an expensive and politically treacherous path. Welcome to the new world.

    http://www.forbes.com/home/2008/06/12/oil-energy-e...

    Posted 16 years ago #
  9. truthmod
    Administrator

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121432276099000211...

    Cries in the Dark How serious is America's energy crisis? These four voices want to make sure policymakers don't dismiss it -- again.

    Back in the halcyon days of March 2005, when oil was at $54 a barrel, Rep. Roscoe Bartlett stood on the House floor to give the first of many lonely speeches.

    The Maryland Republican -- son of a tenant farmer, holder of 30 patents, trained physiologist, former dairy farmer -- knew the speech would win neither votes nor applause from the commuters and farmers who populate his district. But he had a message to impart: The world has less and less oil to offer, he told the near-empty House chamber. The age of cheap energy is ending. And if the U.S. didn't start adapting, it was in for a shock.

    "The tumor has now grown to where it will require even more radical surgery," says the rumpled 82-year-old father of 10, who carpools 100 miles a day in his Prius. He was the first member of Congress to own one, he says.

    Rep. Bartlett is Mr. Peak Oil in the U.S. Congress, which also makes him perhaps the loudest energy-shock spokesman on Capitol Hill. Every few weeks, Rep. Bartlett hauls his thick stack of huge charts -- around 30 in all -- over to the House floor for his after-hours lecture for the viewers of C-Span. In the past three years, he has lectured the nation 42 times on how ebbing oil supplies will bring a big jolt to the U.S. economy.

    Posted 16 years ago #
  10. chrisc
    Member

    New Scientist:

    Oil: The final warning

    http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/...

    You can read it for free here: http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2008/06/27/3521248.h...

    Posted 16 years ago #
  11. truthmod
    Administrator

    WSJ has been covering Peak Oil a lot lately...

    Peak Oil: IEA Inches Toward the Pessimists’ Camp

    http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/07/...

    But the juiciest nugget? The conservative IEA appears to be inching ever-closer to the “peak-oil” crowd. Supply simply can’t keep pace with demand—everybody with an oil well has the taps open, but there’s not much left in the keg. Oil fields are aging quicker than free-agent pitchers, and the global oil industry has to run faster just to stay in place. From the IEA:

    Project delays averaging 12 months, coupled with global average decline of 5.2% - up from 4% last year – are the factors behind these revisions. Over 3.5 mb/d of new production will be needed each year just to hold global production steady. “Our findings highlight again the need for sustained, and indeed, increased investment both upstream and downstream — to assure that the market is adequately supplied,” stated [IEA Executive Director Nabuo] Tanaka.

    Posted 16 years ago #
  12. truthmod
    Administrator

    http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/07/...

    As oil prices again flirt with records, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration hustles to revise upward its forecasts for the price of oil and gas, the “peak oil” camp seems to win more converts every day. Even veteran oilmen like T. Boone Pickens say the era of “easy oil” is over. Just don’t tell the Kurds.

    Kurdistan and Iraq put a finer point on the “peak-oil” debate wracking the industry: No one disputes oil is getting harder to find. The question is whether the current problems are “below ground” or “above ground.” That is, is the world’s oil keg ringing hollow, or is the tap just off-limits to oil companies thanks to issues like resource nationalism, sketchy politics, and violent insurgencies?

    http://www.usnews.com/blogs/the-ticker/2008/7/8/pi...

    Billionaire oilman and corporate raider T. Boone Pickens is taking his fight for American energy independence public today, outlining his plan to wean America off its $700 billion-a-year foreign crude habit.

    "Our dependence on imported oil is killing our economy. It is the single biggest problem facing America today," Pickens said. "As we import more and more of our energy, we are participating in the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind, sending billions of our dollars overseas to buy oil for a commodity that lasts 90 days until burned in our gas tanks."

    Posted 16 years ago #
  13. truthmod
    Administrator

    http://www.pickensplan.com/

    Posted 16 years ago #
  14. truthmod
    Administrator

    http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/42854...

    No Relief from $120 Oil Anytime Soon -- or Ever, says Energy Expert

    As the stock market celebrates a minor dip in oil prices, the author of "Profit from the Peak", Chris Nelder, weighs in on TechTicker. Here's what he had to say:

    • Peak oil is a fact: Sure, there's plenty of oil out there, but we'll never be able to make any more of it per day than we are right now (approx. 85 million barrels). What's more, we'll soon be making a lot less of it, as existing fields get depleted.
    • Barring a collapse of the global economy, the sky's the limit for oil prices--maybe $500 a barrel.
    • Given the world's dependency on oil, a global economic collapse is likely.
    • This is a fundamental supply/demand issue, speculators irrelevant (contributes $10-$15, max).
    • Oil now dropping to $70? "Keep dreaming."
    Posted 16 years ago #
  15. truthmod
    Administrator

    Peak Oil Review -- Aug 11th, 2008
    http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/20080811/peak-oil-...

    Nice roundup from Tom Whipple

    • During the first seven months of the year, Russian oil production was 9.76 million b/d, down by 1 percent versus the same period of last year. (8/5, #17)

    • The eight investor-owned international oil majors reported combined production of 10.47 million b/d, down from 11.18 million a year ago. Most blamed sliding scales in production sharing agreements with foreign countries for at least half of this decline, with field maturation responsible for most of the rest. (8/9, #3)

    • The U.S. Defense Department accounts for 1.5 percent of U.S. energy consumption. The military has set a goal that 25 percent of its energy should come from renewable sources by 2025. (8/8, #16)

    • So far this year 25 airlines, three to four times the usual number, have gone out of business due to high fuel costs. (8/7, #17)

    Posted 16 years ago #

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